Doom & Gloom - Fact or Fiction?
 

Across a number of webmaster boards there is talk of the Adult business being on the verge of collapse through self destruction. The proliferation of free stuff seems to be being blamed and I can see the logic.

However are things really as bad as people say or is it a smokescreen? Yes it's a more difficult business to operate in (mainly because too many webmasters are too far up their own arseholes). Yes there is a lot of free stuff out there. Fact.

But what are the facts? I can only speak for myself and my sites and research of one is never good but never the less here is my take -

AFFILIATE HAT ON

My numbers do not suggest a serious problem. It's a numbers game and my numbers show business is pretty much the same as last year, in fact slightly better. Conversion on Glam Imgs so far this year is 1:487 (based on raw clicks) compared with 1:508 in 2009. Clicks out are also up becuase traffic in is up. In fact there is total correlation between the three key stats of traffic/clicks out/conversion. So no downturn at all - as long as you are prepared to work a bit harder at maintaining/growing traffic

Also as a fairly open minded chap, I don't have many of the principles other gallery owners seem to have. I don't worry about the leak free site issue etc. I have one fundamental, overriding principle - does a site sell? If it does who cares? I certainly wouldn't stop promoting a site if it sells for me for whatever reason!

Don't believe me? Check out my Featured Models and how few have leak free tours etc

SPONSOR HAT ON

I have a simple theory. A site is as good as it's star (for solo sites) or it's theme/niche (for multi girl sites). Too many webmasters/producers enter a niche without actually understanding it E.g they see the word "nylons" and put a site together that features pantyhose. Duh?!?!

After that it's updates (frequency, quality and variety). Yes marketing the site is hardwork and often very frustrating but not impossible. You just have to stick at it.

As far as number of images per gallery is concerned we have gone for 15. Out of a typical photo set that's around 13%. There are one or two harder pics but to get to see the majority then someone has to join. Maybe 12 is a better number, maybe 18. Who knows?

I don't see TGPs and Showcase sites with a ton of free pics as an issue (see my comment above). In fact our affiliate programme is the best way of getting high volume traffic to the sites. Then it is down to us to convert it!

GENERAL

I think the biggest potential threat to our business is the P2P sharing via the likes of Rapidshare etc. We ALL need to police that more closely and work together to keep it to a minimum (we will never eradicate it)

Our business is down, and I am the first to admit that, but rather than moan about it and spread doom and gloom I have analysed it (SWOT analysis + numbers) and the reasons for the decline are pretty much all down to us and not the market (other than the general credit crunch/global recession - and hey shit happens).

For your info our problems are pretty much all health related. Last year I was very ill and pretty much took a year out. This year it's been Astrid's turn to suffer ill health. The result of both is a lack of time/attention to the business. Other than that it's pretty clear what we need to do to get back on track then grow again.

So before saying "the end is nigh" take a real in depth look at yourself and your business. Can you clearly identify the challenges and have you got the inner strength to do something about it?

Start with a very detailed statistical analysis
Apply SWOT type techniques to identify an action plan
Draw up a plan and stick to it

Simple stuff but hardwork.

Or don't bother and just blame everything/everybody else. That's far easier if you can't be arsed!

Geoff, I'm glad you posted this. I was beginning to wonder if I was the only one getting tired of seeing all this "the end is near" crap! lol

I know people say the free stuff is to blame. But again, are they talking about promotional content or 'stolen' content (taken from members areas and reposted on various forums)? If it's promotional content, then it's up to the individual webmaster to stop giving so much away. And if they are talking about stolen content, then again, it's up to each individual webmaster to monitor the various sharing forums and get their stuff taken down. I myself have a list of various file sharing forums that I check now and then to make sure my content isn't posted there and I'm always (unfortunately) adding to that list.

If you are creating unique content that can't be found else where, how is other peoples free content out there going to hurt you? Especially if you are running a solo model site and that model can't be found elsewhere.

I have found other models content posted on various forums, while looking for my stuff, and I have emailed some of those models and some just don't give a shit. Perhaps their attitude is "what can they do about it?" or they just don't care.

If all webmasters cared and took action, and we had some sort of community for sharing these sites and how to get stuff removed....well, I would think that would help combat *part* of the free stuff problem. It would be adult webmasters coming together against those sharing content (illegally).

Geoff, I agree with your 'simple theory'. :)

I think Lady Sonia referred to solo model sites as "personality sites". If the members love the 'star' of the site, they will keep coming back again and again--IF the website (like you said) has frequent updates.

So I read the doom and gloom posts and yet I look at my joins and I see the same guys who have been joining my site for years, staying with me. So am I suppose to just close up shop because others say the end of adult is near? Hell no! lol I've carved out a little niche for myself and things are good. I ignore the other stuff and just keep my nose the the grindstone and keep churning out the content I know my members love.

And I had to LOL to the bit about people doing nylon sites and yet have stockings and pantyhose together. So true..... And if they really KNEW the niche, they'd know that stocking lovers HATE pantyhose!! lol

I may be one of the few people on here that is optimistic about the future. I love what I do and I'm sticking to it. I have a lot of ideas that I want to do with my site which I haven't yet done. And if you love what you do, stick to it. Get tunnel vision. Focus on your goals and what you want to get done. I think that will get you through this. Ignore the noise.

Well some problems are this:

1. free porn, ratios going down, this is everyone and this will generally never quit, the more free porn out there causes more and more surfers to learn about and become more comfortable using the free porn sites. Eventually it'll be all porn users wanting free porn, except for a rare handful who want the newest stuff from a certain site

2. sponsors not paying, this year alone I've seen over 10 of my own sponsors dip out, not pay, etc, (this is non epoch/verotel/ccbill paying sponsors) they just vanish and never pay

3. bad ethics, even ccbill sponsors that normally are forced to pay, will just change their programs to NATS billing or others and just collect your free traffic, with no notification

4. x-sells, The long term effect that pre checked x-sells is doing is killing the surfers (ex-possible customers) desire to ever buy again, they buy what they think is a $30/mo membership and get assbanged for over $100 per transaction!!! Then when they try to chargeback or cancel they get harrassed! pre checked x-sells is VERY common btw.

5. competition, Even as times are getting rougher, sales slowing, ratios getting worse, surfers getting scammed, even with all that, there is even MORE COMPETITION than ever!!! Sure us old timers have the advantage on getting great SE rankings with our old sites, and usually more knowledge and info, but from what I see, the competition is rising bigtime! And, a lot of these new younger competitors are coming in and going about things with no shame, wanting a fast buck, and sometimes their persistent attitude does eventually get there sites ranked high with certain keywords

6. expenses, (will add tomorrow, sorry, I am super tired, super late here, sleepy time, LOL)

I can go on and on, on the general speaking field, we are doomed, this is fact in my mind (I hate to say it, :( )

There will be ways to avoid losing profits and those seem to be:

1. adapt with the ways, scam customers, steal content, open tubes pushing dating and cams
2. making VERY VERY VERY special content website, that are unique and very hard to do, and come by, also forums, chats, social networks etc

I don't like the choices that we'll be having to deal with in the future, that is why I am aiming to get out of this business asap

Sorry folks, for my pessimistic views but I've been in the adult business for about 12 years and I've seen a lot also, and in my opinion, every year the quality of every 1 surfer we've dealt with has gotten worse and worse

If you are talking a general hardcore "fucking and sucking" site, then I agree. That can be had anywhere. But seeing this is a LEGwebmasters forum, it is a bit more specialized content. With webmasters here promoting or the webmaster of a foot, leg, stocking or pantyhose site.

I have posted links to that Pornusers forum before and some of the comments that had been posted on that site, by guys who JOIN porn sites, were that 1--some of them can't be bother to try and track down free stuff and 2--If they do find it, it's incomplete and/or the quality is much poorer than if they were to actually join the site.

Again, I feel this is something that is up to all webmasters, to monitor these illegal sites and get our content taken down.

Okay well that's just shitty business practices and when that stuff happens people usually let other webmasters know via forums. Or so it seems...

Not everyone is going to do that, there are STILL honest webmasters out there. And again, when sites do that, it's up to webmasters to share that info on these sorts of forums. Don't promote people who do shady business.

I hate to admit this, but I don't even know what pre checked cross sales are...:confused:

Yeah, I've seen that before. "Garbage" sites getting high rankings on Google. But then Google seems to be changing their rankings every now and then so I don't keep up with that too much.

Competition isn't a bad thing. You will have that in any field. Sometimes competition makes you step up your game. ;)

And that's OKAY. We are all entitled to our opinion on the current state of things.

Yes, no, no, don't know.

100% exclusive content--I agree with you there. Exclusive model, exclusive videos and photo sets that can't be found elsewhere. And monitor content theft forums to get your exclusive content removed.

So all that being said and done.....what about all the guys that DO buy memberships to sites?? Are they just going to up and die? I don't see that side of things brought in here.

If a guy JUST wants to see someone getting fucked, well, hell yeah they can find that anywhere on the net. But...,.

---If a guy is crazy about a particular model and can only find her stuff in one place and always rejoins for new stuff....what about him?

---If a guy has a favorite foot fetish site that he loves because of the models and the angles the photographer shoots the feet at (a photographer who understands and gets the foot fetish thing)--what about him?

---If a guy has a particular fetish for something and finds a site that does it well and really flips his switch and he keeps coming back for more--what about him??

There ARE guys who are PAYING for memberships and they aren't going anywhere. Give them something UNIQUE that they can't find anywhere else. Do it in a way that no one else is doing. THOSE are the types of sites that are going to pull through this, IMHO. Doing a general fucking site, well, hell yeah you can find that all over the place.

As Suckerpunch stated in another thread, this is the 'shakedown' period. And it will be interesting to see who is still around in 6 months to a years time.

The sky has been falling for over decade now, and I've yet to get squished by it. I think I'll just continue to soldier on and make money.

I don't really talk numbers, but Digitaldivasonline.com as an example is around 1:685 as far as CCBill and my other programs seem to be right on time as far as payments.

Beautifulfeetonline.com, well, I am in the process of remastering all of my video. Traffic and signups are a little slow, but I am not promoting BFO at all right now, just editing fucking video...

I think that you always have to be improving to keep your traffic coming back and most importantly, checking in imho.

I will try and condence an answer (due to alcohol intake)

There are inherhant problems which the likes of deecash has caused - Need I expand?
The amount of free stuff on the web isn't a great help, and, quite simply, affiliates need to fucking learn the difference between hose and nylons and then the different types of nylons - Surfers must get totally pissed off to click on a link for ff only to get some porn star in stay ups getting fucked.
That leaves us..;.
Difficult times - Surfers not joining - not rebilling - and sites disappearing quicker than a rat up a sewer...
Well - Does it sort of sound familiar - ?
How are you doing? Well? great? fantastic? or shit?
You should be doing great, at the very least - If not, I will tell you why -
Your site doesn't give the surfer the confidence to join or you are short of traffic -
Surfers are joining - And as much as ever - But, they need a reason - Look at your tours and get them fixed!

(Decided to edit spelling mistakes, but found too may to be bothered!)